Poker Strategy & GTO

Hand Analysis #1

Blinds: SB: 1, BB: 3

Hero (UTG): ~$330

Villain 1 (BB): ~$1500

Villain 2 (MP): unknown

Context: This was a hand played at Aces Poker Seattle July 3, 2025. The game was 1/3 stakes.

Preflop Action

There are around 7 players in this table. The Hero is in the UTG position and opens to $20 (~7 BB — large for a 1/3 game, indicating a strong hand). MP (loose) calls, likely with any two cards. MP has been drinking and talking loudly, so he is not paying attention to the game. BB (tight) calls, the bet ruling out any high over pairs and stronger value hands like suited broadways.

Flop: 8♣ 4♦ 3♠ (rainbow) — Pot $61

BB (Villain 1) checks. Hero (UTG) c-bets $20 (~1/3 pot). MP (Villain 2) folds. BB (Villain 1) calls.

Turn: 8♣ 4♦ 3♠ 9♠ — Pot $101

Two spades now. BB checks. Hero bets $20 (~20% pot). BB check-raises to $60. Hero calls.

River: 8♣ 4♦ 3♠ 9♠ K♠ — Pot $220

Third spade arrives. BB leads $100 (~45% pot). Hero tanks and folds AA with A♠.

Villain’s Range

• Sets: 33, 44, 99, (perhaps 88 — though 88 often 3-bets pre; tight players sometimes just flat.)
• No straights: 7♠6♠ is the only meaningful draw. 7♠6♠ on the turn has ~26% equity but it’s odd to check-raise for building a pot
• Two-pair: Very unlikely (only runner-runner K9). 89 suited makes sense, not after raising 100 on the river.
• Flushes: Flats flop with spades, picks up flush draw on turn, then bets river when it completes.
• Bluffs: Missed low-straight draws (7 6, 7 5, 6 5), weak spade draws with a pair or gutshot, and busted bottom pairs turning into bluffs on river.

Key Point

Hero’s A♠ blocks the nut flush, removing the highest-equity value combos from Villain’s range and increasing the proportion of semi-bluffs. On the river, Hero faces a pot of $220 and a $100 bet. Minimum Defense Frequency (MDF) = 220 / (220 + 100) ≈ 69%. AA has showdown value against most of Villain’s bluffs, so it’s a solid bluff-catcher here.

Hero’s Options

• Call: Good vs. aggressive or balanced villains to deny profitable bluffs.
• Fold: Acceptable vs. ultra-nitty opponents who only value-bet when ahead.
• Don’t bluff-raise: AA already wins vs. bluffs; low-stakes players rarely fold small flushes anyway.

Alternative Line: Nut-Blocker Bluff

You could turn AA into a blocker bluff by shoving river, representing hands like A Q♠, A J♠ or A T♠. That line:

• Pre: standard raise
• Flop: small c-bet
• Turn: small bet → call check-raise
• River: shove, repping the nut flush

In theory, this can fold out sets and small flushes. In practice at 1/3 stakes, players rarely fold made flushes, so it’s a losing line.

Conclusion

You should not bluff-raise AA here. Use AA as a bluff-catcher:

• ✔️ Call to defend against balanced/aggressive play.
• ✔️ Fold vs. ultra-tight players.
• ❌ Don’t raise — save blocker-bluffs for true zero-showdown-value spots.